Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,226$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,208.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(57,208.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,595$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,271.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,271.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,340$ on 2020-06-07

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $287,621$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285,060.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(285,060.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $40,625$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,662.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(38,662.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $245,757$ on 2020-06-07

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $241,550$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(6.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,121.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(231,121.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(7.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,198.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,198.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64,038$ on 2020-06-07

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $234,998$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,800.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(228,800.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,899$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(6.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,796.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,796.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,262$ on 2020-06-07

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,730$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,200.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 66.6)}}\) (asimptote \(46,200.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,659$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(551 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,590.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,590.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,071$ on 2020-06-07

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $191,102$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(3.99 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,271.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(183,271.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,158$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,121.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,121.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,983$ on 2020-06-07

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,780$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(9.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,716.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(45,716.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,032$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,897.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,897.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41,567$ on 2020-06-07

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,201$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(4.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,743.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,743.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,679$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(239 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,634.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,634.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $824$ on 2020-06-07

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 99%
Croatia recovered 99%
Serbia recovered 97%
Malta recovered 93%
Germany recovered 89%
Denmark recovered 84%
Lithuania recovered 70%
Italy recovered 67%
San Marino recovered 56%
Romania recovered 42%
Bulgaria recovered 33%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,039$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(1.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,885.7}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 31.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,885.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(30.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(108.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30$ on 2020-06-07

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(542 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,207.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,207.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(19.6 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.7}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(103.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-06-07

Serbia⮸

Population $8,737,371$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,823$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,230.8}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,230.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $249$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(56.7 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{245.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(245.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $226$ on 2020-06-07

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $629$ on 2020-06-07

Best fit exponential: \(145 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{591.4}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(591.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-06-07

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-06-07