Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,226$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,208.2}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.3)}}\) (asimptote \(57,208.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,595$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,271.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,271.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $33,340$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $287,621$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{285,060.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(285,060.4\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,625$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(5.83 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,662.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(38,662.4\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $245,757$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,550$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(6.07 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{231,121.8}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(231,121.8\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,136$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(7.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,198.1}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,198.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $64,038$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $234,998$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(5.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{228,800.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(228,800.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,899$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(6.43 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,796.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(32,796.9\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,262$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,730$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.19 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,200.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 66.6)}}\) (asimptote \(46,200.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,659$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(551 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,590.1}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,590.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $40,071$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $191,102$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(3.99 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{183,271.4}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(183,271.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,158$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(5.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,121.6}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 38.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,121.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $90,983$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,780$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(9.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,716.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(45,716.1\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,032$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(1.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,897.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,897.9\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,567$ on 2020-06-07
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,201$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(4.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,743.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(24,743.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,679$ on 2020-06-07
Best fit exponential: \(239 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,634.1}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,634.1\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $824$ on 2020-06-07